Gold was little changed on Friday (November 15), but it is expected to post its biggest weekly decline in three years this week due to the strengthening of the US dollar and reduced expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Gold prices hit a two-month low on Thursday and have fallen more than $220 since hitting an all-time high last month, trading near $2,570 after five consecutive sessions of decline.
Gold is now rebounding slightly after falling nearly 8% since the US Election Day. Despite the high US producer price index (PPI) again, the market did not show a strong hawkish reaction,
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that rate cuts could be proceeded with cautiously.
The market now seems to accept the expectation of only two rate cuts in 2025, but stronger reasons are needed to further reduce this expectation. In the short term, this pullback may be nearing its end.
Investors are now focusing on the US retail sales data due at 21:30 Hong Kong time on Friday night and the speeches of a number of Fed officials later in the day.
Gold technical analysis
Daily chart
On the daily chart, gold prices broke below the key trend line around 2600 and extended losses towards the 2536 level. In case of a bigger rally, bears may re-enter the market near the broken trend line and the previous low of 2600.
Bulls, on the other hand, need to see the price break above higher levels to increase their bullish bets and push the price to new highs.
4-hour chart
On the 4-hour chart, the current bearish momentum is defined by a descending trend line. Bears may rely on this trend line to look for new lows, while bulls will focus on whether the price can break above the trend line.
to increase the bullish bets and push the price back to the 2600 level.
1-hour chart
On the 1-hour chart, sellers will be watching for resistance near the trend line to see if it is valid, while buyers will be hoping for the price to break out to the upside.
Potential catalysts
U.S. retail sales data will be released today. This could be a key driver of gold’s short-term move.
At 20:00 Hong Kong time, spot gold was at $2,569.10 per ounce.
Author: Zhou Tong (Analyst) 15-11-2024
#The above is only the author’s personal opinion and has nothing to do with the company’s position.
#The policy recommendations are for informational purposes only, there are risks in entering the market, and investment needs to be cautious.