At the end of the Asian session on Friday (November 22), gold traded near $2,698, and the risk aversion caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict continued to heat up on the fundamentals.
Even if the U.S. dollar index hit a new high, it failed to make gold lower, mainly because there was a correction demand at the daily level, and gold maintained a bullish operation under the blessing of risk aversion.
From a medium-term perspective, the decline in initial jobless claims in the United States and the lower expectations of the Fed’s interest rate cut in December are all factors that are unfavorable to the medium-term rise of gold, so the direction choice after the short-term wait for the risk aversion to cool down.
It is worth noting that the COMEX gold weekly line has engulfed last week’s decline, and against the background of a sharp increase in volatility, it is expected to test the pressure near the previous high again, and continue to pay attention to fundamental changes.
From a technical point of view, the daily level of gold is near the pressure of the falling channel of $2750, and the current price is near the pressure of the moving average, but the bulls have not weakened, waiting for the retracement to suck low.
If the weekly line closes and engulfs, it is expected to accelerate the rise, and the daily level does not break through $2650, then the bulls will continue to rebound.
Technically
Gold rose further after breaking through the key resistance of $2,665 and approached the psychological mark of $2,700. The $2665 line was the resonance point of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the pullback and the 100-period simple moving average.
Its effective breakthrough significantly boosted the confidence of market bulls. Technical indicators show that the momentum on the daily chart is gradually increasing, indicating that there is still further upside in the future.
If gold can effectively break above $2,700, it could test the supply range of $2,710-$2,711 and even challenge the next key resistance level of $2,736.
On the other hand, in terms of lower support, $2,665 has become the main short-term support level. A break below this level could allow gold to retest the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $2,635 and even further to the $2,600 mark.
The key technical support is around $2,560 and $2,537, and a break above these levels could lead to a re-bearish turn.
Outlook for future trends
Overall, gold prices have been supported by both risk aversion and macroeconomic factors recently, and bullish momentum has dominated. With the further development of the situation between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the market’s further digestion of the Fed’s policy path, gold may maintain a strong shock pattern in the short term.
Market participants need to pay attention to the release of global PMI data tonight, which will provide new guidance for gold. In addition, investors should pay close attention to geopolitical developments and further statements from Fed officials to assess the long-term trend of gold prices.
At 21:20 Hong Kong time, spot gold was at $2692.10 an ounce.
Author: Zhou Tong (Analyst) 21-11-2024
#The above is only the author’s personal opinion and has nothing to do with the company’s position.
#The policy recommendations are for informational purposes only, there are risks in entering the market, and investment needs to be cautious.